◆ BOTTOM LINE

The Iran-US deal is closer than at any prior point in the negotiation arc — Trump has publicly committed ('largely negotiated'), Iran's Hormuz control infrastructure has been degraded both institutionally and physically, and oil markets are already pricing resolution with a 11-13% decline from the 30-day baseline. The June 16-17 FOMC creates a hard deadline: if the MOU signs before that meeting, Warsh's first decision is a hold and reconstruction financing is clean; if not, a rate hike into war inflation creates a fiscal-monetary collision that delays Phase 5. Capital markets are pre-positioning for the deal but have not fully committed — airlines are up 10% but the MOU hasn't been signed.

SIGNAL VS. CONSENSUS

The airlines ETF recovery (+10% above baseline) appears inconsistent with the absence of a formally signed MOU — smart money is pre-positioning for a deal that has not yet been publicly confirmed. Framework signals suggest the oil decline (-11-13% from baseline) has priced a Hormuz reopening that the bond market has not yet confirmed through Iran CDS tightening (still at 300bps, widening trend). Historically this pattern — oil declining while CDS remains elevated — precedes Phase 4→5 transition by 2-4 weeks as the financial layer catches up to the energy market signal.

CAPITAL ROTATION SIGNAL

Capital rotation signal suggests Phase 4 peak pressure architecture with early Phase 5 pre-positioning active simultaneously: defense primes plateauing (Phase 4 'sell the news' pattern), energy services activating (E6 Stage 1 confirming), and nuclear-for-compute infrastructure receiving terminal capital deployment. Consistent with the reconstruction arc at Step 5 — Stage 3 nuclear/compute power track confirmed active with Stage 1 (HAL/SLB) and Stage 2 (Bechtel/Fluor) running concurrently.

◆ 72-HOUR WATCH

Iran MOU signature status relative to June 16-17 FOMC — if signed before FOMC, it confirms Phase 5 entry and accelerates JETS/HAL/SLB rotation; if unsigned at FOMC, it means Warsh rate hike risk resurfaces and Phase 4 extends through Q3.

BEFORE NEXT PHASE BEGINS